We are already past the peak of the iPhone 7 and 7 Plus, reports KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. In the coming months, shipments will decline and they’ve already fallen in November. Kuo predicts Apple’s suppliers will adjust their iPhone shipment estimates down by 5-15% for November-December.
The lack of demand for the new iPhone is believed to come from Apple not making many significant upgrades to the handset. People who already have a recent iPhone may sit out this generation.
As the 4.7-inch iPhone 7, which accounts for a higher share of iPhone shipments, is in stock in the main global markets, we believe overall iPhone shipments have peaked. We think iPhone shipment forecasts will be revised down due to: (1) lower-than-expected demand due to a lack of spec surprises in the 4.7-inch iPhone 7; and (2) shorter times for delivering online orders of 5.5-inch iPhone 7 Plus, which implies slowing demand. We note that the out-of-stock phenomenon also results from fixed capacity, and is not only due to robust demand.
KGI has reduced its Q4 2016 iPhone shipments figure from 85-90 million to 80-85 million.